Why the China Threat Is Overblown | Logan Wright

In Episode 500 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Logan Wright, director of China macro and financial sector research at the Rhodium Group and author of Broken China, about why China's economic troubles are structural rather than cyclical, the product of the largest single-country credit expansion in history, how Beijing's official GDP figures obscure what is actually happening to Chinese households, local governments, and the property market, why the renminbi is overvalued and capital flight out of China is likely to persist, and what it means for the West to treat the PRC not as a rising power to be managed, but as a declining one. The first hour focuses on Wright's central argument that China's economy is in structural decline, not because its leaders chose austerity or an unwavering commitment to running chronic trade surpluses, but because the largest single-country credit expansion in over a century has exhausted the financial system's capacity to generate growth, leaving it unable to ignite the domestic demand needed to rebalance both the Chinese and global economies. They discuss why optimism about Beijing's reform prospects was once rational, how China's officia…